When does a cobot actually pay back?
Industry-published payback claims range from 8 months (Interact Analysis, 24/7 best-case) to 24 months (AMD Machines / Robotomated, real-world dual-shift). The honest answer is application-dependent and operates on disclosed assumptions.
What an hour of operator labour actually costs.
US manufacturing production wage (BLS Current Employment Statistics, series CES3000000008) was $30.1/hr in April 2026 — up 3.6% YoY. That figure understates true displacement cost by the employer-benefit load.
BLS Employer Costs for Employee Compensation (ECEC), Q2 2025, puts fully-burdened manufacturing hourly cost at $46.3/hr including payroll tax, health benefits, retirement, and PTO. On a two-shift schedule (16 hrs/day × 250 days × 75% effective utilisation), that's $55,000-$75,000 annual displacement saving per FTE — the band reflects whether the cobot truly displaces a full FTE or augments one.
Why arm price is not installed cost.
Industry consensus across Standard Bots, EVSint, Robotiq 2026 reports: complete turnkey deployment runs 2.5-4x the bare arm price. The arm is 40-50% of total project cost. A $30K UR5e becomes a $75K-$120K installed cell. Most first-time buyers see only the arm price; payback math that uses the arm-price denominator is wrong by 2.5-4x.
Real-world ranges from integrator data.
Sources: AMD Machines + Robotomated integrator data, 2026. Machine tending and welding have the tightest payback bands; quality inspection has the widest because the cost spread is dominated by vision-system choice.
Best-case vs real-world.
Interact Analysis 2026: 8-14 month payback. This figure assumes 24/7 operation, scrap-reduction credit applied, and integration cost held at ~30% of arm price. It is the ceiling, not the centre.
AMD Machines + Robotomated 2026: 12-24 month payback for typical dual-shift deployments without scrap credit and with realistic integration cost (40-60% of project). This is what real customers see.
The honest answer is: 12-24 months for a dual-shift labour displacement, 8-14 months only if you also reduce scrap or run a third shift. Quote Interact's 8-14 month figure with the assumption disclosure or it misleads.
The homepage calculator defaults to dual-shift (16 hr/day, 250 days/year, 75% effective utilisation). Total installed cell cost = arm + integration ($25K typical) + EOAT ($5K) + safety ($8K). Annual labour cost = (operator hourly wage × 1.3 burden multiplier) × 8 hr × shifts × 250 × 0.75 utilisation. Payback months = total ÷ (annual labour ÷ 12).
For best-case 24/7 math, set shifts = 3 in the calculator. The payback range shifts to 8-16 months for the same robot price. For real-world dual-shift, leave shifts = 2.